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1 December 2025 Under Review Crypto Microstructure

Do Whitepaper Claims Predict Market Behavior? Evidence from Cryptocurrency Factor Analysis

Murad Farzulla

Download PDF arXiv: 2601.20336 DOI Zenodo SSRN GitHub

Abstract

Do the functional purposes articulated in cryptocurrency whitepapers correspond to how markets actually price these assets? We propose a three-stage framework combining NLP with market characterization to test narrative-market alignment. A pilot on 8 cryptocurrencies yields overall congruence of 0.719 (95% CI: [0.623, 0.953]).

Suggested citation

Murad Farzulla (2025). Do Whitepaper Claims Predict Market Behavior? Evidence from Cryptocurrency Factor Analysis. Dissensus Working Paper DAI-2508. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787736/v1

Methodology

NLP zero-shot classification CP tensor decomposition Tucker congruence

Topics

Financial Markets Cryptocurrency Natural Language Processing