Tools & Packages

Open Tooling

Software, indices, and live dashboards that implement the lab's quantitative methods. Everything here is open-access and citable; install commands and DOIs are listed per package.

Software Packages

Open-source libraries implementing the lab's quantitative methods

Python package · v0.1.0 Released

GJR-GARCH-X

Student-t GJR-GARCH with exogenous regressors in the variance equation

A small, dependency-light Python implementation of the asymmetric GJR-GARCH(1,1,1) volatility model with Student-t innovations and arbitrary exogenous regressors (the X) entering the conditional variance equation. Built for the lab's cryptocurrency event-study pipeline, where infrastructure and regulatory shocks are encoded as exogenous variance covariates and tested for asymmetric volatility response.

pip install gjr-garch-x
  • Asymmetric leverage effect via the GJR indicator term
  • Student-t innovations for heavy-tailed crypto returns
  • Exogenous regressors in the variance equation (the -X)
  • Maximum-likelihood estimation, NumPy/SciPy only
Versionv0.1.0 DOI10.5281/zenodo.17988193

Live Indices & Dashboards

Hosted indices and interactive risk dashboards

Live index & dashboard Live

ASRI — Aggregated Systemic Risk Index

A composite early-warning index for systemic risk at the DeFi–TradFi boundary

ASRI aggregates four weighted sub-indices — Stablecoin Concentration, DeFi Liquidity, Contagion, and Regulatory Opacity — into a single 0–100 systemic-risk score for cryptocurrency markets. Validated against the Terra/Luna (2022-05), Celsius/3AC (2022-06), FTX (2022-11), and SVB (2023-03) crises, it correctly flagged the February 2025 Bybit hack ($1.5B, the largest exchange theft in history) as non-systemic — ASRI did not spike, because no contagion channels were active. The live dashboard tracks the index, its sub-components, and the HMM risk regime in real time.

  • Four-channel composite score: Stablecoin · DeFi Liquidity · Contagion · Opacity
  • Alert bands — Low <30 · Moderate 30–50 · Elevated 50–70 · High ≥70
  • Three-regime hidden Markov model: Low Risk · Moderate · Crisis
  • Lead time ≈19d (fixed threshold) / ≈26d (walk-forward) before crisis onset
AUROC (ASRI / D-Y)0.866 / 0.670 AUPRC (ASRI / D-Y)0.298 / 0.121 Precision @ Youden35.2% / 14.9%
arXiv2602.03874

Build With Us

These packages are released CC-BY / open-source as the research that produced them is published. If a tool is useful to your work—or broken in an interesting way—we want to hear about it.

Issues & collaboration welcome